Just how far up the leaderboard could Hayden Paddon potentially be after the opening day of Repco Rally New Zealand this month?
The Kiwi superstar starts the first day of the rally as the 12th car on the road, and with over 78 kilometres of stages on the opening loop alone, it is not unreasonable to predict that Paddon could be well inside the top 10.
The stages around Raglan, to the south of Auckland, have traditionally been covered in a loose layer of gravel that has seen the first cars on the road bleeding time to those behind them.
If the weather is dry, this will be even more of a disadvantage for those drivers at the head of the pack.
The driver who’ll be most affected will be the World Rally Championship leader, Kalle Rovanpera, who showed in Greece last weekend that sweeping the road is a lot more difficult than he might have expected.
A lack of familiarity with the New Zealand roads will also be a major concern for our international guests.
Of the 11 drivers in front of Paddon on day one of Rally NZ, I can see the possibility of him being faster than several of them over the opening three tests.
That’s not allowing for any mechanical problems or off-road excursions, either.
Of the top-line WRC drivers, only Sebastien Ogier, Ott Tanak and Thierry Neuville have competed in New Zealand before, which puts Paddon at a tremendous advantage over those in front.
In theory, a Rally2 car should not get within a bull’s roar of a Rally1 car on a stage – road sweeping or not – but Paddon has a unique advantage on home soil that could really upset the apple cart after the opening group of stages.
I may well be proved wrong, but I’m expecting big things from the local hero in terms of his final outright placing.
It’s unlikely that he’ll be able to rely on mechanical problems ahead of him, as the roads rarely cause issues in that regard, but the fast nature and unique camber of the stages may well catch out some of those ahead of him.
Could this rally be the start of the push to get Paddon back in a Rally1 car for next year? That’s unlikely, but if nothing else, it will remind the rallying world that he’s a driver that had his top-line WRC career cut way too short.
Hyundai’s re-emergence as a rally winner over the last three WRC rounds has given the sport a real shot in the arm.
The team finished last weekend’s Acropolis Rally in Greece with a first-ever 1-2-3 podium result, while the previously untouchable Toyota squad were left licking their wounds, and wondering where their pace had gone.
The aforementioned road positions at Rally New Zealand may mean that outright speed alone won’t count for as much when the rally gets underway in two weeks’ time.
With previous rally experience and starting from eighth on the road, Sebastien Ogier will begin as the pre-event favourite, despite him being out of the Yaris Rally1 car for some months.
Another who could benefit greatly is M-Sport’s Craig Breen. He’s sixth on the road and well overdue for some good luck.
It won’t be as easy for WRC leaders Rovanpera, Tanak, Neuville and Evans, though, who will struggle big time on the rally’s first day.
The unpredictability is perhaps the most intriguing storyline heading into Rally NZ’s long-overdue return.
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