The King is gone. Long live the King. But who takes over the crown?
That’s the question being asked by World Rally Championship fans with Sebastien Ogier not contesting the full season for the first time since 2012.
In fact, only one driver other than a Sebastien (Ogier or Loeb) has won the WRC since 2003 – and that was in 2019 when Estonian Ott Tanak ended the run of Seb titles.
It’s funny really, that even in 2022 with the championship wide open for the first time in years, the first round of the year was dominated by none other than Sebs Loeb and Ogier!
With limited programs, neither of them will win the title this year though, so let’s go through the main contenders one by one and try and pick a winner.
Elfyn Evans (Toyota): Second the last two seasons, Evans should be the favourite, and probably is. He’s in a team he knows well, has shown improved speed and consistency over the past two seasons, and now has experience to rival anyone. My only knock on Evans is his tendency to make small errors at exactly the wrong time, such as in Monza in 2020, Kenya in 2021, and Monte Carlo in 2022. They’re mistakes Ogier didn’t make. Wipe out those, and he should be odds-on.
Thierry Neuville (Hyundai): A perennial bridesmaid, Neuville – like Jari-Matti Latvala – is yet to reach the heights expected of him. He undoubtedly has the speed when everything is going well, but too often his car has let him down. It’s worth remembering that Neuville has had the Hyundai built around him for many seasons now, yet he hasn’t been able to get the job done. Picking the Belgian for the title this year is, at present, a long shot.
Ott Tanak (Hyundai): Like his team-mate, Tanak’s chances of repeating his only WRC title will be solely based on the reliability and speed of his car. He’s yet to fully gel with either the i20 or the Hyundai team, although he has won rallies and shown that the speed is occasionally there. From afar, it does appear that his attitude is not right, highlighted by end of stage interviews and that stoic Estonian persona. He can absolutely win the title again, but not this year.
Craig Breen (M-Sport Ford): He’s never done a full WRC season, and is driving for a new team in a brand new car, but those who don’t think the Irishman can win the title may need to reassess. An error-free drive in Monte Carlo saw him take a podium finish when he was clearly driving within himself, and under team orders. Maybe he can’t win the title on outright speed alone, but championships are won by consistency, and Breen has shown that in spades in recent seasons.
Kalle Rovanpera (Toyota): If you’d have asked me after day one of Monte Carlo if the Finn could win the title this year, I’d have laughed at the suggestion. Not so now. The way the youngster changed the set-up of his Yaris and then set fastest times as he catapulted back up the field to an eventual fourth place finish says plenty about his ability. Winning the Power Stage when Loeb and Ogier were fighting for the win was the kicker though and, in my eyes, makes Rovanpera the favourite to become the youngest ever World Rally Champion. He has the tools, and the talent, to make that happen.
However, as we saw in Monte Carlo, a day can be a long time in the WRC, let alone an event. Added to that is that Monte Carlo is usually the most specific event on the calendar, and speed (or otherwise) there is not always indicative of what’s in store for the rest of the season.
What we do know at the moment is that Toyota and Ford have very fast cars, and that Hyundai have plenty of work to do.
Now we wait to see what the drivers have in store, and who wants that coveted WRC title the most.
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