Should we be surprised by Visa Cash App Racing Bulls driver Liam Lawson and his fifth place at the Azerbaijan Formula One Grand Prix on Sunday. Having set the third fastest time in qualifying (Q3), the Kiwi driver put in a genuinely solid performance to finish in fifth position, his best finish so far in in 28 F1 races.
After a luck-less start to 2025 with two races driving for the Oracle Red Bull Racing team and being teammate to Max Verstappen, his demotion to Racing Bulls has helped to define the talent that we know he, and his stakeholders, have in him.
Since moving to Racing Bulls, after the Chinese Grand Prix, Lawson has slowly and confidently been building and collecting points.
Was Baku a career-defining performance? No, not necessarily because it was no surprise. We know that the Racing Bulls car is a top-performing mid-pack contender. Outside of the McLaren Team, arguable it is one of the most consistent performing cars this season. Verstappen’s Red Bull Racing car has been hot and cold, as have the Ferrari, Williams, Mercedes.
Maybe the surprise is our own confidence, or lack of it, in his ability to perform consistently at this top level. Arguably, in the lower categories of Formula 2 and 3, it was more of a lottery. In both these categories there appears to be different variables at play that you just don’t see in Formula One.
For a controlled category (F2 and 3), it appears to be the variables outside of the car itself that can determine the outcome. Can you ever be certain of predicting the podium of F2 or F3 races? So, why not?
There can be a certain amount of talent mixed with desperation to impress knowing that they have to be better than the rest. This can lead to unnecessary risks which pay off or fall apart.
Whereas, in Formula One, within reason there is more certainty. We soon know, after several races which teams have the most competitive package and are likely to win races or be on the podium. Those that don’t, there is still interest in the mid-field battle, the best of the rest. Not necessarily so in F2 or F3.
There seems to be a stronger element of respect amongst the F1 grid. Each driver has earned their place regardless of money or politics. While there may be others with more talent who haven’t made it, you need talent not just to drive a F1 car but to galvanise the investment from a team to keep you in the car.
Crashing is not necessarily about the price of repairs, it is also the cost on the team, resources, manpower, loss of key constructor points, pride and the long-term impact on a driver’s career at that level.
Lawson currently sits 13th on the drivers’ points table with 30-points. Teammate Isack Hadjar is just nine- points ahead in ninth overall, hence a top ten finish for Lawson is easily on the cards. The gap between ninth and eighth is a bigger leap with Albon on 70, 31-points ahead of Hajar.
The double points finish for the Racing Bulls team in Baku has seen them jump to sixth on the Constructor’s Points table, ten more than Aston Marting Racing. There is a 31-point gap ahead to fifth-placed Williams that may be too hard to bridge.
So, what are our expectations for Lawson heading into the final seven Grand Prix of the 2025 season. Two come to mind. Beat your teammate in both qualifying and race results and finish in the essential points scoring top ten. That will not only secure a seat in 2026 but will consolidate a long-term future in the category. Other teams will take note and a driver’s ‘value’ will increase.
With Lawson there is an air of confidence and certainty which has grown since swapping into a Racing Bulls car. Having ‘made-it’ into Formula One, it is now about cementing his place on the grid and targeting the next stage of spending time on the podium. History will take care of itself.
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