In this time of unprecedented change, it is difficult to be certain how the future may unfold, particularly with sport, and specifically with motorsport. Yet stand back from the conundrum before us and there are some themes that are starting to emerge. We can agree that the world will not go back to how it was pre-2020. In motorsport we are likely to see the demise of many international series, but maybe the upshot will be a resurgent club scene in NZ as people stay local.
Our trading partners, and both domestic and world economies are taking a giant hit. Jobs will be lost, businesses will go into liquidation and new markets will appear as we struggle to emerge and get back to work once the COVID-19 pandemic is under control.
It is looking more and more as though international travel will change for some time as border restrictions will impede both business, leisure and international sport.
It is reported that American Airlines, one of the richest carriers, is applying for $12bnUS in government aids. British Airways has suspended all flights from Gatwick airport. Meanwhile at home, Air NZ is looking to layoff at least a third of its staff and says it will now become a predominantly domestic airline.
What we are going through now, is not dissimilar to what has gone before us. The plague, syphilis and then in the 19th Century it was Cholera. Cholera, which was carried through water and human contact, wasn’t experienced in Europe until the 1830s when it was spread through trade routes from Asia. Industrialisation increased the exposure of populations living in close proximity, with dirty water and poor sanitation. The death rate is reported to have been 50%!
Quarantine was required for 40 days, whether it was ships to be unloaded or people coming into countries. It was seen as a poor man’s disease as they tended to live in more overcrowded conditions and unlike the rich, they couldn’t up and leave.
Trade was seen to have spread the disease and often very quickly through new transport systems, such as the advent of the railway. To stall the spread, trade in turn had to be limited hence it became a political issue. It was not too uncommon for merchants to pressure politicians who became concerned about the economic impact.
Quarantine wasn’t necessarily accepted in all countries, particularly in those that had known corrupt politicians. In these situations where trust is imperative for good quarantine, it often failed. Added to this can be an element of xenophobia.
While we are dealing with our own lock-down, we are able to observe what is happening with many other nations and their measures to combat Covid-19. We hold grave fears for both Australia and the USA. Both appear to have acted late and will suffer the consequences.
It is also reported that the UK’s deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries has spoken about the need to keep the lockdown in Great Britain through until September in order to prevent a second wave of the virus.
Border restrictions will be necessary for NZ as other countries grapple with the virus for what looks like many months ahead. This will affect both trade and tourism. There is no getting around it until either the world eradicates COVID-19 or a vaccine is developed.
Which brings us to the future of motorsport.
Already Talkmotorsport has delved into this topic looking at what will emerge after this for Supercars in Australia ( see What changes after this?), the affect on the NZ Rally Champs (see Normality will return….at some point) and on Rally NZ (see Border bans could scupper Rally NZ’s return).
First of all don’t expect that Rally NZ will be a round of the WRC in 2020. Actually I would expect that if a championship gets underway, border restrictions are likely to determine that the remaining rounds will be in Europe.
Supercars are not likely to be back in NZ for some time. Not only will NZ border restrictions inhibit international sport coming to our shores, but are we likely to see internal problems within Australia with different States restricting the flow of people. It is all very well to suggest that Supercars may compete at circuits without spectators but this involves many team members coming together from all parts of Australia. Is the Premier of Tasmania going to allow this? Such is the economic impact that each country now has to sustain, it is unlikely that any ‘Covid-19 free area’ will promote the flow of people from areas still affected.
Think even bigger picture. Will the NZ Warriors shift to a base in Australia or become non-existent as a Kiwi club. Even the Australian NFL is in danger of this with no income for sometime.
This week the NZ Rugby Union signaled that professional rugby may now become semi-professional requiring many players to source income from another means. Again, we can’t expect to have international teams visiting our shores in 2020 and Super rugby will not be that super for some time.
Formula E – don’t be surprised to see the collapse of this category. Why? It is clearly supported by key manufacturers – Audi, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, Mahindra, Jaguar, Nissan. As with the GFC back in 2008, manufacturers can suddenly get gun-shy and will pull the plug on any involvement in motorsport as it is not necessarily a good look. Honda did this at the end of 2008, suddenly pulling out of Formula One in an instant. Will we see manufacturers withdraw from WRC and WEC?
Most car manufacturers have stopped production and with revenues drying up, face mounting debt in order to sustain the wages of workers locked-down at home. Job cuts are inevitable. Volkswagen is reported to have fixed costs of $2.2 billion a week.
Once it gets going again it will be heavily depend on the supply of materials and components from sub-contractors (if they are still in business) as well as customer demand for the product. Again, consumer demand is dependent on the economy and business confidence within countries and globally.
Formula One – No Grand Prix means no income! Already the new 2021 F1 car has been put back a year to 2022 and this season’s chassis will be rolled over into another season. Money will be tight and the question to be answered is how many F1 teams will survive the economic downturn? Will border restrictions mean that 2020 GPs’ will only take place in Europe?
Here at home:
New generation BNT V8s – We have seen the release of the new TA2 chassis for the future of the BNT V8 category. It is an exciting prospect, but the timing couldn’t have been worse. With the likely recession to follow the Covid-19 crisis, how many teams/drivers will have the money to proceed with a new car. How many corporates will want to get back involved in motorsport in the next two years?
TCR NZ – the same with the new TCR New Zealand category. Many teams in motorsport rely on an income stream from one or several small businesses. Often it is the driver who owns the business. If times get tough, how many will have that extra ‘play-money’?
Castrol Toyota Racing Series – I’d have a bet on both-ways for the 2021 Castrol Toyota Racing Series. It could go horribly wrong as we rely on most of the field being made up of international drivers. With restrictions on international travel and the uncertainty ahead, Toyota Racing may not be able to get management overseas to press-the-flesh and close the deals. It may be heavily dependent on whether the Northern Hemisphere Formula categories go ahead and have enough time to create a championship.
However, because of the lack of Northern Hemisphere racing, there may be a strong demand for racing over the NZ summer and we will see a full grid.
Club racing – this is likely to be strong. Why? Because coming out of virus restrictions, people want to have a sense of normality which often means doing what they love with friends and family. Club racing is local, doesn’t have the expense of traveling and being away. You can have a go without committing to a national series.
Formula Ford – Expect strong fields as this is when the strength of the category kicks in. There are plenty of cars that came out of garages last season and particularly the South Island Formula Ford Club offers plenty of great racing and a friendly pit scene. Again, like club racing this is a great tonic.
While none of this is set in concrete, it looks increasingly as though there may be very little international motorsport in 2020. Border restrictions and the difficulties of international travel will be determining factors which may mean that the best motorsport will likely take place at your nearest circuit or club event.
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