IF THERE’S any circuit on the calendar where the Red Bull Holden Racing team should feel confident of putting one over on the Shell V-Power Ford Mustangs, it will be the Reid Park street circuit in Townsville.
There are few circuits on the current calendar so completely dominated by one team and, in particular, one driver.
The tight street and parklands hybrid circuit – it’s like a smaller version of Adelaide – packs a lot into it’s 2.9 kilometres with 13 corners, two significant stops, lots of kerbs and some tricky, mid-to-high speed stuff all smashed into a 72-second lap.
Of the 21 races held at the venue since it first appeared on the calendar a decade ago, Triple Eight cars have won 12 of them and Jamie Whincup 10.
DJR Team Penske? Just the one, thanks to a Scott McLaughlin victory in the opening race two years ago.
However unlike Football, recent form guides mean very little in the cyclical world of motorsport.
There’s very little chance to go into this weekend expecting anything other than the Red Mustangs, and one of them in particular, to carry on with their rout of the competition this year.
McLaughlin leads the championship by more than 300 points – that’s a full weekend of racing and then some more. He could quite literally take this weekend off, spend it sipping a beer by the beach and still head to Queensland Raceway in Ipswich at the end of the month leading the championship.
And he’d still likely be leading it by a considerable margin, too, because the battle for the scraps this year is shaping up to be a beauty and Townsville could be the weekend that sets the tone for how it all plays out.
The complexion of the championship changes considerably when you pull car 17 out of the results.
Sure, Fabian Coulthard would be on top but it’s chaos behind him.
Dave Reynolds’ recent form has him 87-points clear of Chaz Moster for third and fourth in the championship, while Mostert has just on point on Shane van Gisbergen in fifth.
Jamie Whincup is only nine points further back in sixth meaning there’s less than 100 points splitting four pretty competitive blokes in very decent racing cars – or at least ones with the potential to be decent.
I think there’s a bit of pressure on in this battle and that it’s going to be the fight to watch in the second half of this season.
Reynolds, and by extension his Penrite Racing Erebus team, will be desperate to finish third; beating the Tickford Mustangs and especially the Triple Eight Commodores would be one of the team’s biggest ever successes.
And if he can keep the pressure on Fabian Coulthard then there’s no doubt that the fight for second could go right down to the wire.
If Erebus can split the Penske Mustangs in a year where they are so dominant, it would be one of the better giant-killing performances in recent Supercars history.
Then there’s Tickford, who possess a form guide so hard to read it makes the betting for the Melbourne Cup look like a children’s learn-to-count book.
The Melbourne-based Mustang team have been hot and cold this year – relative to their Ford rivals, of course – but they have plenty of speed and Chaz Mostert remains fiercely competitive. His non-finish in Perth cost him points, but outside of that he’s been a contender for most of it.
Cam Waters has been impressive, too, with four podiums to his record already this year. If the team gets it right, you feel like there’s not much between he and a serious result at some point soon.
And then there’s Triple Eight. Fifth and sixth in the championship, on recent history, makes for poor reading for the sport’s most successful team of the decade but, as we outlined earlier, they’re far from being out of the picture.
Van Gisbergen’s recent form will be troubling – he’s not seen the podium since he won in Tasmania (April seems like an age ago now) but Whincup has been punching on and producing some of his better drives – even if they’re not for victories.
If they can click this weekend, and re discover their Townsville form of last year, then it is very realistic to assume that they will be a factor in that fight for third across the balance of the next four or five months.
People are quick to profess a championship over, and to be fair this one probably is. If McLaughlin can’t win he’ll finish second and Coulthard is playing the perfect backup role.
But that doesn’t mean there’s still not plenty to play for this season. Come Newcastle and November, it could be the fight for third that creates another compelling and dramatic season finale’ that we’ve all become accustomed to over the last few years.
And it could start this weekend in Townsville.
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